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…in reply to @KentonVarda
KentonVarda Likely not new supporters, just old supporters that actually voted this time. The amount of "swingable" constituents has shrunk a lot. Since 2004(ish) most campaigns' voter outreach is about voter turnout for known supporters rather than generating new supporters.
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…in reply to @magiceldridge
KentonVarda The Big Sort is a great book about this and some related topics about how there's less "crossover" between parties in the American people, what happened, and how that affects the gov't, campaigns, etc.